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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.